We analysed 3 years worth of Polymarket trades. Here's what we found.

Can we join the top 0.1% of winners on prediction markets, by building a bot? Sponsored by Incogni - use code ingenius at https://incogni.com/ingenius to get an exclusive 60% off your annual subscription. Developed by the team behind @veritasium, InGenius is a new channel dedicated to surprising human stories about global systems and how the world works. For more content follow us on our social media accounts: Instagram - https://in49.s.gy/Instagram TikTok - https://in49.s.gy/TikTok FaceBook - https://in49.s.gy/FaceBook X - https://in49.s.gy/X Spotify - https://in49.s.gy/spotify ▀▀▀ ▀▀▀ Special thanks to the experts and collaborators who made this video possible: Professor Vincent Gregoire for helping us understand who wins and who loses on Polymarket and making his dataset freely available. Professors Theis Jensen and Roberto Gomez Cram for giving us insight into the strategies used by winning users. Professor Carissa Veliz for highlighting the questions that need to be asked about this new phenomenon. Tarek Mansour, Dustin Gouker, Oriol Saguillo, Jack Such, and Professors Robin Hanson, and Ilya Beylin, for sharing their time and expertise in our research conversations to help us understand the rapidly evolving world of prediction markets. Jesterthegoose and Steve Farmer for helping us understand the strategies on the platform. ▀▀▀ References: Akey, P., Gregoire, V., Harvie, N., & Martineau, C. (2026). Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket (No. 6443103). SSRN. in49.s.gy/pmAkey Gomez Cram, R., Guo, Y., Jensen, T. I., & Kung, H. (2026). Prediction market accuracy: Crowd wisdom or informed minority? (No. 6617059). SSRN. in49.s.gy/pmGomezCram Gregoire, V. (2026). Polymarket users [Dataset]. In Who Wins and Who Loses In Prediction Markets? Evidence from Polymarket. (Version v1.3). in49.s.gy/pmGregoireData (in49.s.gy/pmGregoirePaper) The rest here: Additional References - https://in49.s.gy/AdditionalReferences Visual References - https://in49.s.gy/VisualReferences ▀▀▀ Writer, Producer & Director: Lucas Kavanagh Presenter: Latif Nasser Editors: Alex Cockburn, Alex Langworthy Camera Operator: Wingel Buendia Technical Animators: Little Shadow Historical Illustrator & Art Director: Maria Gusakovich Historical Illustrator: Caine Esperanza Historical Animator: Arturo Bravo Peña Researcher: Daniel Puchert Design: Ben Powell, Daniel Ellacott Thumbnail Designers: Abdallah Rabah, Daniel Ellacott, Patryk Ziolkowski & Ben Powell Production Team: Katy Southwood, Anna Milkovic, Matthew Cavanagh, Josh Pitt & Christian la Brijn Executive Producers: Zoe Heron Additional video/photos supplied by Getty Images and Storyblocks Music from Epidemic Sound